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Joshua Davis v Neil Mallam (Fri 14 Dec 2018)

Match won by Joshua Davis. Result: 11-9,12-10,11-9.

Starting level for Joshua Davis: 2,189, level confidence: 77%. Set manually.
Starting level for Neil Mallam: 1,484, level confidence: 82%. Set manually.
Joshua Davis to win as he is currently playing 48% better than Neil Mallam.

Joshua Davis won all of the games and 55% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 21% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Joshua Davis played 33% better than Neil Mallam in this match.

As Joshua Davis has played below his allowed range at 1,970, his level reduction is 0% before damping. On the assumption that Joshua Davis would normally have been playing at level 2,091 (based on typical behaviour), Neil Mallam played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 3.1%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 2.6% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Joshua Davis changes to 0% and Neil Mallam changes to +2.4%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Joshua Davis becomes -0.1% and for Neil Mallam becomes +2%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Hampshire Mens League 2018/2019' so the adjustment for Joshua Davis is 0% and for Neil Mallam is +1.5%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Joshua Davis: 88%, Neil Mallam: 91%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Joshua Davis: 83%, Neil Mallam: 86%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Joshua Davis: 2,184, level confidence: 83%.
Final level for Neil Mallam: 1,504, level confidence: 86%.