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Patrick Rooney v Ondrej Uherka (Wed 12 Dec 2018)

Match won by Patrick Rooney. Result: 11-5,11-3,11-2.

Starting level for Patrick Rooney: 26,968, level confidence: 68%.
Starting level for Ondrej Uherka: 14,879, level confidence: 68%.
Patrick Rooney to win as he is currently playing 81% better than Ondrej Uherka.

Patrick Rooney won all of the games and 77% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 230% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Patrick Rooney played 230% better than Ondrej Uherka in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Patrick Rooney actually played at a level of 36,389 and Ondrej Uherka at a level of 11,027. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 35% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 25% and 25% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Patrick Rooney changes to +25% and Ondrej Uherka changes to -25%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Patrick Rooney becomes +5.3% and for Ondrej Uherka becomes -6%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA London Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Ondrej Uherka is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Patrick Rooney: 83%, Ondrej Uherka: 82%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Patrick Rooney: 61%, Ondrej Uherka: 61%.

A final adjustment of +0% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Patrick Rooney: 28,399, level confidence: 61%.
Final level for Ondrej Uherka: 14,170, level confidence: 61%.