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Mahesh Mangaonkar v Naveen Jangra (Thu 13 Dec 2018)

Match won by Mahesh Mangaonkar. Result: 11-4,11-5,11-2.

Starting level for Mahesh Mangaonkar: 35,120, level confidence: 80%. Set manually.
Starting level for Naveen Jangra: 9,711, level confidence: 62%.
Mahesh Mangaonkar to win as he is currently playing 262% better than Naveen Jangra.

Mahesh Mangaonkar won all of the games and 75% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 200% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Mahesh Mangaonkar played 200% better than Naveen Jangra in this match.

Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Mahesh Mangaonkar was taking it easy by anything up to 31%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 16,816 and 35,120 without affecting his level.

In this case, Mahesh Mangaonkar played at level 29,133 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. Consequently, Naveen Jangra is considered to have not played better than expected and his level will also not be adjusted.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Mahesh Mangaonkar: 89%, Naveen Jangra: 79%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Mahesh Mangaonkar: 81%, Naveen Jangra: 72%.

Final level for Mahesh Mangaonkar: 35,120, level confidence: 81%.
Final level for Naveen Jangra: 9,711, level confidence: 72%.