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Mahesh Mangaonkar v Vijay Kumar (Fri 14 Dec 2018)

Match won by Mahesh Mangaonkar. Result: 12-10,11-7,11-3.

Starting level for Mahesh Mangaonkar: 35,108, level confidence: 81%. Set manually.
Starting level for Vijay Kumar: 16,402, level confidence: 60%.
Mahesh Mangaonkar to win as he is currently playing 114% better than Vijay Kumar.

Mahesh Mangaonkar won all of the games and 63% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 70% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Mahesh Mangaonkar played 70% better than Vijay Kumar in this match.

Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Mahesh Mangaonkar was taking it easy by anything up to 14%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 25,845 and 35,108 without affecting his level.

In this case, Mahesh Mangaonkar played at level 28,981 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Mahesh Mangaonkar would normally have been playing at level 30,122 (based on typical behaviour), Vijay Kumar played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 3.9%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 2.7% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Mahesh Mangaonkar changes to 0% and Vijay Kumar changes to +2.7%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Mahesh Mangaonkar becomes 0% and for Vijay Kumar becomes +1.2%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Hcl 75th National Championship 2018' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Mahesh Mangaonkar: 90%, Vijay Kumar: 77%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Mahesh Mangaonkar: 80%, Vijay Kumar: 69%.

Final level for Mahesh Mangaonkar: 35,108, level confidence: 80%.
Final level for Vijay Kumar: 16,599, level confidence: 69%.