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Harry Falconer v Nick Wall (Sat 15 Dec 2018)

Match won by Harry Falconer. Result: 4-11,11-6,7-11,11-4,11-8.

Starting level for Harry Falconer: 18,391, level confidence: 85%. Set manually.
Starting level for Nick Wall: 23,352, level confidence: 52%.
Nick Wall to win as he is currently playing 27% better than Harry Falconer.

Harry Falconer won 60% of the games and 52% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 10% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Harry Falconer played 10% better than Nick Wall in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Harry Falconer actually played at a level of 21,735 and Nick Wall at a level of 19,759. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 18% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 16% and 16% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Harry Falconer changes to +9.9% and Nick Wall changes to -16%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Harry Falconer becomes +2.8% and for Nick Wall becomes -3.8%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Senior Boston Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Harry Falconer: 92%, Nick Wall: 72%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Harry Falconer: 78%, Nick Wall: 61%.

A final adjustment of +0.9% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Harry Falconer: 18,899, level confidence: 78%.
Final level for Nick Wall: 22,885, level confidence: 61%.