Mahesh Mangaonkar v Abhishek Pradhan (Sat 15 Dec 2018)
Match won by Mahesh Mangaonkar. Result: 11-7,11-6,11-0.
Starting level for
Mahesh Mangaonkar:
35,090, level confidence: 80%. Set manually.
Starting level for
Abhishek Pradhan:
16,395, level confidence: 81%. Set manually.
Mahesh Mangaonkar to win as he is currently playing
114% better than Abhishek Pradhan.
Mahesh Mangaonkar won all of the games and 72% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 154% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Mahesh Mangaonkar played
154% better than Abhishek Pradhan in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Mahesh Mangaonkar actually played at a level of
38,215 and Abhishek Pradhan at a level of
15,054. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 8.9% to match this result.
Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 6% and 6% respectively.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Mahesh Mangaonkar changes to +6% and Abhishek Pradhan changes to -5.9%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Mahesh Mangaonkar becomes +1.7% and for Abhishek Pradhan becomes -2%.
Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Hcl 75th National Championship 2018' so the adjustment is unchanged.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Mahesh Mangaonkar: 89%, Abhishek Pradhan: 90%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Mahesh Mangaonkar: 82%, Abhishek Pradhan: 83%.
Final level for Mahesh Mangaonkar:
35,701, level confidence: 82%.
Final level for Abhishek Pradhan:
16,074, level confidence: 83%.