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Mahesh Mangaonkar v Vikram Malhotra (Sun 16 Dec 2018)

Match won by Mahesh Mangaonkar. Result: 11-4,13-15,11-2,5-11,15-13.

Starting level for Mahesh Mangaonkar: 35,731, level confidence: 82%. Set manually.
Starting level for Vikram Malhotra: 29,817, level confidence: 77%. Set manually.
Mahesh Mangaonkar to win as he is currently playing 20% better than Vikram Malhotra.

Mahesh Mangaonkar won 60% of the games and 55% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 22% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Mahesh Mangaonkar played 13% better than Vikram Malhotra in this match.

As Mahesh Mangaonkar has played below his allowed range at 34,355, his level reduction is 1.9% before damping. On the assumption that Mahesh Mangaonkar would normally have been playing at level 35,370 (based on typical behaviour), Vikram Malhotra played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 2.4%.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Mahesh Mangaonkar changes to -1.6% and Vikram Malhotra changes to +2.2%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Mahesh Mangaonkar becomes -0.6% and for Vikram Malhotra becomes +0.9%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Hcl 75th National Championship 2018' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Mahesh Mangaonkar: 90%, Vikram Malhotra: 88%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Mahesh Mangaonkar: 88%, Vikram Malhotra: 85%.

A final adjustment of +0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Mahesh Mangaonkar: 35,468, level confidence: 88%.
Final level for Vikram Malhotra: 30,222, level confidence: 85%.