Doug Chandler v Tom Burge (Thu 10 Jan 2019)
Match won by Tom Burge. Result: 11-8,4-11,11-9,6-11,12-14.
Starting level for
Doug Chandler:
2,126, level confidence: 74%. Set manually.
Starting level for
Tom Burge:
1,889, level confidence: 82%. Set manually.
Doug Chandler to win as he is currently playing
13% better than Tom Burge.
Tom Burge won 60% of the games and 55% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 20% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Tom Burge played
13% better than Doug Chandler in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Tom Burge actually played at a level of
2,127 and Doug Chandler at a level of
1,888. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 13% to match this result.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Tom Burge changes to +10.7% and Doug Chandler changes to -12%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Tom Burge becomes +5.3% and for Doug Chandler becomes -5.5%.
Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Hampshire Mens League 2018/2019' so the adjustment for Tom Burge is +4% and for Doug Chandler is -4.1%.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Tom Burge: 90%, Doug Chandler: 86%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Tom Burge: 80%, Doug Chandler: 76%.
A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Doug Chandler:
2,040, level confidence: 76%.
Final level for Tom Burge:
1,961, level confidence: 80%.