Adrian Docwra v Neil Mallam (Thu 10 Jan 2019)
Match won by Adrian Docwra. Result: 11-9,6-11,11-9,8-11,11-6.
Starting level for
Adrian Docwra:
1,579, level confidence: 70%. Set manually.
Starting level for
Neil Mallam:
1,439, level confidence: 76%. Set manually.
Adrian Docwra to win as he is currently playing
10% better than Neil Mallam.
Adrian Docwra won 60% of the games and 51% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 2% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Adrian Docwra played
8% better than Neil Mallam in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Adrian Docwra actually played at a level of
1,567 and Neil Mallam at a level of
1,450. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 0.8% to match this result.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Adrian Docwra changes to -0.7% and Neil Mallam changes to +0.7%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Adrian Docwra becomes -0.6% and for Neil Mallam becomes +0.6%.
Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Hampshire Mens League 2018/2019' so the adjustment for Adrian Docwra is -0.5% and for Neil Mallam is +0.4%.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Adrian Docwra: 84%, Neil Mallam: 87%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Adrian Docwra: 83%, Neil Mallam: 87%.
A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Adrian Docwra:
1,569, level confidence: 83%.
Final level for Neil Mallam:
1,443, level confidence: 87%.