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Oliver Pett v Tim Vail (Thu 10 Jan 2019)

Match won by Tim Vail. Result: 4-11,1-11,3-11.

Starting level for Oliver Pett: 20,538, level confidence: 32%.
Starting level for Tim Vail: 20,163, level confidence: 86%. Set manually.
Oliver Pett to win as he is currently playing 2% better than Tim Vail.

Tim Vail won all of the games and 80% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 313% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Tim Vail played 313% better than Oliver Pett in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Tim Vail actually played at a level of 41,330 and Oliver Pett at a level of 10,019. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 105% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Tim Vail changes to +38% and Oliver Pett changes to -104%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Tim Vail becomes +8% and for Oliver Pett becomes -17%.

Given Tim Vail's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 40% has been applied to his level change.

Given Oliver Pett's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 40% has been applied to his level change. Looks like he wasn't taking the match too seriously...

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Hampshire Mens League 2018/2019' so the adjustment for Tim Vail is +4.3% and for Oliver Pett is -8.6%.

Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Oliver Pett is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Tim Vail: 92%, Oliver Pett: 56%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Tim Vail: 45%, Oliver Pett: 27%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Oliver Pett: 19,531, level confidence: 27%.
Final level for Tim Vail: 20,998, level confidence: 45%.