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Mahesh Mangaonkar v Marwan Elshorbagy (Wed 09 Jan 2019)

Match won by Mahesh Mangaonkar. Result: 11-9,14-12,12-10.

Starting level for Mahesh Mangaonkar: 34,940, level confidence: 69%.
Starting level for Marwan Elshorbagy: 58,182, level confidence: 25%.
Marwan Elshorbagy to win as he is currently playing 67% better than Mahesh Mangaonkar.

Mahesh Mangaonkar won all of the games and 54% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 19% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Mahesh Mangaonkar played 31% better than Marwan Elshorbagy in this match. An upset!

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Mahesh Mangaonkar actually played at a level of 51,628 and Marwan Elshorbagy at a level of 39,375. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 48% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 35% and 35% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Mahesh Mangaonkar changes to +13% and Marwan Elshorbagy changes to -35%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Mahesh Mangaonkar becomes +3% and for Marwan Elshorbagy becomes -6.2%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Cci International' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Marwan Elshorbagy is limited to -4.7% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Mahesh Mangaonkar: 83%, Marwan Elshorbagy: 50%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Mahesh Mangaonkar: 56%, Marwan Elshorbagy: 34%.

A final adjustment of +0% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Mahesh Mangaonkar: 35,975, level confidence: 56%.
Final level for Marwan Elshorbagy: 55,611, level confidence: 34%.