Stuart Macgregor v Ben Ford (Wed 09 Jan 2019)
Match won by Stuart Macgregor. Result: 11-5,11-9,8-11,4-11,11-3.
Starting level for
Stuart Macgregor:
17,849, level confidence: 51%.
Starting level for
Ben Ford:
15,902, level confidence: 56%.
Stuart Macgregor to win as he is currently playing
12% better than Ben Ford.
Stuart Macgregor won 60% of the games and 54% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 15% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Stuart Macgregor played
11% better than Ben Ford in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Stuart Macgregor actually played at a level of
17,777 and Ben Ford at a level of
15,966. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 0.4% to match this result.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Stuart Macgregor changes to -0.4% and Ben Ford changes to +0.3%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Stuart Macgregor becomes -0.2% and for Ben Ford becomes 0%.
Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Kent Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Stuart Macgregor: 71%, Ben Ford: 75%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Stuart Macgregor: 71%, Ben Ford: 75%.
Final level for Stuart Macgregor:
17,819, level confidence: 71%.
Final level for Ben Ford:
15,927, level confidence: 75%.