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Miles Jenkins v Harry Falconer (Wed 09 Jan 2019)

Match won by Miles Jenkins. Result: 7-11,5-11,11-6,11-6,11-8.

Starting level for Miles Jenkins: 20,896, level confidence: 58%.
Starting level for Harry Falconer: 18,871, level confidence: 65%.
Miles Jenkins to win as he is currently playing 11% better than Harry Falconer.

Miles Jenkins won 60% of the games and 52% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 7% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Miles Jenkins played 9% better than Harry Falconer in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Miles Jenkins actually played at a level of 20,759 and Harry Falconer at a level of 18,995. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 0.7% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Miles Jenkins changes to -0.6% and Harry Falconer changes to +0.6%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Miles Jenkins becomes -0.3% and for Harry Falconer becomes 0%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Kent Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Miles Jenkins: 76%, Harry Falconer: 81%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Miles Jenkins: 75%, Harry Falconer: 80%.

Final level for Miles Jenkins: 20,840, level confidence: 75%.
Final level for Harry Falconer: 18,917, level confidence: 80%.