Miles Jenkins v Harry Falconer (Wed 09 Jan 2019)
Match won by Miles Jenkins. Result: 7-11,5-11,11-6,11-6,11-8.
Starting level for
Miles Jenkins:
20,896, level confidence: 58%.
Starting level for
Harry Falconer:
18,871, level confidence: 65%.
Miles Jenkins to win as he is currently playing
11% better than Harry Falconer.
Miles Jenkins won 60% of the games and 52% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 7% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Miles Jenkins played
9% better than Harry Falconer in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Miles Jenkins actually played at a level of
20,759 and Harry Falconer at a level of
18,995. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 0.7% to match this result.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Miles Jenkins changes to -0.6% and Harry Falconer changes to +0.6%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Miles Jenkins becomes -0.3% and for Harry Falconer becomes 0%.
Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Kent Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Miles Jenkins: 76%, Harry Falconer: 81%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Miles Jenkins: 75%, Harry Falconer: 80%.
Final level for Miles Jenkins:
20,840, level confidence: 75%.
Final level for Harry Falconer:
18,917, level confidence: 80%.