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James Willstrop v Mahesh Mangaonkar (Thu 10 Jan 2019)

Match won by James Willstrop. Result: 11-3,18-16,8-11,11-9.

Starting level for James Willstrop: 42,963, level confidence: 79%. Set manually.
Starting level for Mahesh Mangaonkar: 36,071, level confidence: 56%.
James Willstrop to win as he is currently playing 19% better than Mahesh Mangaonkar.

James Willstrop won 75% of the games and 55% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 23% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that James Willstrop played 24% better than Mahesh Mangaonkar in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like James Willstrop actually played at a level of 43,901 and Mahesh Mangaonkar at a level of 35,300. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 2.2% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for James Willstrop changes to +1.4% and Mahesh Mangaonkar changes to -2%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for James Willstrop becomes +0.5% and for Mahesh Mangaonkar becomes -0.8%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Cci International' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. James Willstrop: 89%, Mahesh Mangaonkar: 75%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. James Willstrop: 87%, Mahesh Mangaonkar: 73%.

A final adjustment of +0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for James Willstrop: 43,064, level confidence: 87%.
Final level for Mahesh Mangaonkar: 35,994, level confidence: 73%.