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Stuart Macgregor v Nick Wall (Thu 10 Jan 2019)

Match won by Stuart Macgregor. Result: 11-9,6-11,8-11,11-6,11-7.

Starting level for Stuart Macgregor: 17,819, level confidence: 70%. Set manually.
Starting level for Nick Wall: 23,011, level confidence: 72%. Set manually.
Nick Wall to win as he is currently playing 29% better than Stuart Macgregor.

Stuart Macgregor won 60% of the games and 52% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 7% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Stuart Macgregor played 9% better than Nick Wall in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Stuart Macgregor actually played at a level of 21,161 and Nick Wall at a level of 19,377. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 19% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 16% and 16% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Stuart Macgregor changes to +16% and Nick Wall changes to -16%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Stuart Macgregor becomes +4.1% and for Nick Wall becomes -3.9%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Kent Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Stuart Macgregor: 84%, Nick Wall: 85%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Stuart Macgregor: 71%, Nick Wall: 71%.

Final level for Stuart Macgregor: 18,549, level confidence: 71%.
Final level for Nick Wall: 22,157, level confidence: 71%.