Stuart Macgregor v Nick Wall (Thu 10 Jan 2019)
Match won by Stuart Macgregor. Result: 11-9,6-11,8-11,11-6,11-7.
Starting level for
Stuart Macgregor:
17,819, level confidence: 70%. Set manually.
Starting level for
Nick Wall:
23,011, level confidence: 72%. Set manually.
Nick Wall to win as he is currently playing
29% better than Stuart Macgregor.
Stuart Macgregor won 60% of the games and 52% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 7% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Stuart Macgregor played
9% better than Nick Wall in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Stuart Macgregor actually played at a level of
21,161 and Nick Wall at a level of
19,377. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 19% to match this result.
Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 16% and 16% respectively.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Stuart Macgregor changes to +16% and Nick Wall changes to -16%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Stuart Macgregor becomes +4.1% and for Nick Wall becomes -3.9%.
Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Kent Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Stuart Macgregor: 84%, Nick Wall: 85%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Stuart Macgregor: 71%, Nick Wall: 71%.
Final level for Stuart Macgregor:
18,549, level confidence: 71%.
Final level for Nick Wall:
22,157, level confidence: 71%.