Jan Van Den Herrewegen v Stuart Macgregor (Fri 11 Jan 2019)
Match won by Jan Van Den Herrewegen. Result: 11-3,11-3,11-8.
Starting level for
Jan Van Den Herrewegen:
27,151, level confidence: 61%.
Starting level for
Stuart Macgregor:
18,549, level confidence: 70%. Set manually.
Jan Van Den Herrewegen to win as he is currently playing
46% better than Stuart Macgregor.
Jan Van Den Herrewegen won all of the games and 70% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 136% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Jan Van Den Herrewegen played
136% better than Stuart Macgregor in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Jan Van Den Herrewegen actually played at a level of
34,455 and Stuart Macgregor at a level of
14,617. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 27% to match this result.
Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 22% and 22% respectively.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Jan Van Den Herrewegen changes to +22% and Stuart Macgregor changes to -18%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Jan Van Den Herrewegen becomes +4.8% and for Stuart Macgregor becomes -4.5%.
Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Kent Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Jan Van Den Herrewegen: 78%, Stuart Macgregor: 84%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Jan Van Den Herrewegen: 62%, Stuart Macgregor: 66%.
Final level for Jan Van Den Herrewegen:
28,444, level confidence: 62%.
Final level for Stuart Macgregor:
17,750, level confidence: 66%.