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Olivia Howell v Harry Falconer (Tue 08 Jan 2019)

Match won by Harry Falconer. Result: 6-11,6-11,8-11.

Starting level for Olivia Howell: 6,236, level confidence: 54%.
Starting level for Harry Falconer: 18,939, level confidence: 80%. Set manually.
Harry Falconer to win as he is currently playing 204% better than Olivia Howell.

Harry Falconer won all of the games and 62% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 65% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Harry Falconer played 65% better than Olivia Howell in this match.

Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Harry Falconer was taking it easy by anything up to 25%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 9,969 and 18,939 without affecting his level.

In this case, Harry Falconer played at level 12,104 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Harry Falconer would normally have been playing at level 14,239 (based on typical behaviour), Olivia Howell played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 18%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 9.8% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Harry Falconer changes to 0% and Olivia Howell changes to +9.8%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Harry Falconer becomes 0% and for Olivia Howell becomes +3.5%.

Given Olivia Howell's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 5% has been applied to her level change.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'NW Counties Winter League 2018/19' so the adjustment for Harry Falconer is 0% and for Olivia Howell is +2.5%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Harry Falconer: 89%, Olivia Howell: 74%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Harry Falconer: 66%, Olivia Howell: 54%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Olivia Howell: 6,381, level confidence: 54%.
Final level for Harry Falconer: 18,911, level confidence: 66%.