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Jan Van Den Herrewegen v Chris Hall (Mon 14 Jan 2019)

Match won by Jan Van Den Herrewegen. Result: 11-7,11-9,10-12,11-6.

Starting level for Jan Van Den Herrewegen: 28,952, level confidence: 74%. Set manually.
Starting level for Chris Hall: 20,792, level confidence: 61%.
Jan Van Den Herrewegen to win as he is currently playing 39% better than Chris Hall.

Jan Van Den Herrewegen won 75% of the games and 56% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 26% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Jan Van Den Herrewegen played 25% better than Chris Hall in this match.

As Jan Van Den Herrewegen has played below his allowed range at 26,434, his level reduction is 1.3% before damping. On the assumption that Jan Van Den Herrewegen would normally have been playing at level 27,967 (based on typical behaviour), Chris Hall played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 3.5%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 1.1% and 3% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Jan Van Den Herrewegen changes to -0.9% and Chris Hall changes to +3%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Jan Van Den Herrewegen becomes -0.4% and for Chris Hall becomes +1.3%.

Given Jan Van Den Herrewegen's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 54% has been applied to his level change.

Given Chris Hall's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 41% has been applied to his level change.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Warwickshire Winter League 2018/19' so the adjustment for Jan Van Den Herrewegen is 0% and for Chris Hall is +0.7%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Jan Van Den Herrewegen: 86%, Chris Hall: 78%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Jan Van Den Herrewegen: 81%, Chris Hall: 74%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Jan Van Den Herrewegen: 28,856, level confidence: 81%.
Final level for Chris Hall: 20,902, level confidence: 74%.