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Patrick Rooney v Lewis Doughty (Tue 15 Jan 2019)

Match won by Patrick Rooney. Result: 13-11,11-6,11-9.

Starting level for Patrick Rooney: 28,645, level confidence: 72%. Set manually.
Starting level for Lewis Doughty: 8,963, level confidence: 83%. Set manually.
Patrick Rooney to win as he is currently playing 220% better than Lewis Doughty.

Patrick Rooney won all of the games and 57% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 35% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Patrick Rooney played 41% better than Lewis Doughty in this match.

Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Patrick Rooney was taking it easy by anything up to 27%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 14,316 and 28,645 without affecting his level.

As Patrick Rooney has played below his allowed range at 13,467, his level reduction is 6.3% before damping. On the assumption that Patrick Rooney would normally have been playing at level 21,046 (based on typical behaviour), Lewis Doughty played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 29%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 3.5% and 15% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Patrick Rooney changes to -3.5% and Lewis Doughty changes to +13%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Patrick Rooney becomes -1.3% and for Lewis Doughty becomes +4%.

Given Patrick Rooney's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 53% has been applied to his level change. Looks like he wasn't taking the match too seriously...

Given Lewis Doughty's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 14% has been applied to his level change.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'NW Counties Winter League 2018/19' so the adjustment for Patrick Rooney is -0.6% and for Lewis Doughty is +2.6%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Patrick Rooney: 85%, Lewis Doughty: 91%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Patrick Rooney: 56%, Lewis Doughty: 61%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Patrick Rooney: 28,419, level confidence: 56%.
Final level for Lewis Doughty: 9,185, level confidence: 61%.