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Lewis Anderson v Stuart Macgregor (Mon 14 Jan 2019)

Match won by Stuart Macgregor. Result: 6-11,3-11,11-13.

Starting level for Lewis Anderson: 12,641, level confidence: 63%.
Starting level for Stuart Macgregor: 17,642, level confidence: 65%.
Stuart Macgregor to win as he is currently playing 40% better than Lewis Anderson.

Stuart Macgregor won all of the games and 64% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 75% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Stuart Macgregor played 75% better than Lewis Anderson in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Stuart Macgregor actually played at a level of 19,755 and Lewis Anderson at a level of 11,289. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 12% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 10.1% and 10.1% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Stuart Macgregor changes to +9.7% and Lewis Anderson changes to -10.1%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Stuart Macgregor becomes +2.8% and for Lewis Anderson becomes -3%.

Given Stuart Macgregor's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 35% has been applied to his level change.

Given Lewis Anderson's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 24% has been applied to his level change.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Warwickshire Winter League 2018/19' so the adjustment for Stuart Macgregor is +1.5% and for Lewis Anderson is -1.8%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Stuart Macgregor: 81%, Lewis Anderson: 80%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Stuart Macgregor: 72%, Lewis Anderson: 71%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Lewis Anderson: 12,396, level confidence: 71%.
Final level for Stuart Macgregor: 17,887, level confidence: 72%.