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Oliver Pett v Aaron Allpress (Wed 09 Jan 2019)

Match won by Aaron Allpress. Result: 5-11,4-11,2-11.

Starting level for Oliver Pett: 21,702, level confidence: 58%.
Starting level for Aaron Allpress: 11,346, level confidence: 64%.
Oliver Pett to win as he is currently playing 91% better than Aaron Allpress.

Aaron Allpress won all of the games and 75% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 200% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Aaron Allpress played 200% better than Oliver Pett in this match. An upset!

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Aaron Allpress actually played at a level of 27,179 and Oliver Pett at a level of 9,060. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 140% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 88% and 88% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Aaron Allpress changes to +80% and Oliver Pett changes to -88%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Aaron Allpress becomes +16.2% and for Oliver Pett becomes -15%.

Given Aaron Allpress's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 21% has been applied to his level change.

Given Oliver Pett's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 42% has been applied to his level change. Looks like he wasn't taking the match too seriously...

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Surrey Winter League 2018/19' so the adjustment for Aaron Allpress is +10.1% and for Oliver Pett is -7.5%.

Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Aaron Allpress is limited to +7.7% and Oliver Pett is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Aaron Allpress: 80%, Oliver Pett: 76%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Aaron Allpress: 33%, Oliver Pett: 32%.

A final adjustment of +0% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Oliver Pett: 20,703, level confidence: 32%.
Final level for Aaron Allpress: 12,202, level confidence: 33%.