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Seigo Masuda v Scott Handley (Wed 16 Jan 2019)

Match won by Scott Handley. Result: 2-11,1-11,11-6,11-1,8-11.

Starting level for Seigo Masuda: 9,581, level confidence: 75%. Set manually.
Starting level for Scott Handley: 15,632, level confidence: 77%. Set manually.
Scott Handley to win as he is currently playing 63% better than Seigo Masuda.

Scott Handley won 60% of the games and 55% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 21% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Scott Handley played 13% better than Seigo Masuda in this match.

As Scott Handley has played below his allowed range at 12,029, his level reduction is 11% before damping. On the assumption that Scott Handley would normally have been playing at level 14,591 (based on typical behaviour), Seigo Masuda played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 16%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 8.7% and 12% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Scott Handley changes to -8.5% and Seigo Masuda changes to +12%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Scott Handley becomes -2.6% and for Seigo Masuda becomes +3.8%.

Given Scott Handley's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 31% has been applied to his level change.

Given Seigo Masuda's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 16% has been applied to his level change.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Surrey Winter League 2018/19' so the adjustment for Scott Handley is -1.5% and for Seigo Masuda is +2.4%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Scott Handley: 88%, Seigo Masuda: 87%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Scott Handley: 73%, Seigo Masuda: 72%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Seigo Masuda: 9,801, level confidence: 72%.
Final level for Scott Handley: 15,382, level confidence: 73%.