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Daniel Hockborn v Stuart Macgregor (Wed 16 Jan 2019)

Match won by Daniel Hockborn. Result: 8-11,11-6,11-2,11-2.

Starting level for Daniel Hockborn: 14,010, level confidence: 69%.
Starting level for Stuart Macgregor: 18,305, level confidence: 75%. Set manually.
Stuart Macgregor to win as he is currently playing 31% better than Daniel Hockborn.

Daniel Hockborn won 75% of the games and 66% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 95% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Daniel Hockborn played 48% better than Stuart Macgregor in this match. An upset!

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Daniel Hockborn actually played at a level of 19,494 and Stuart Macgregor at a level of 13,156. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 39% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 34% and 34% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Daniel Hockborn changes to +34% and Stuart Macgregor changes to -30%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Daniel Hockborn becomes +7.7% and for Stuart Macgregor becomes -6.7%.

Given Daniel Hockborn's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 27% has been applied to his level change.

Given Stuart Macgregor's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 36% has been applied to his level change. Looks like he wasn't taking the match too seriously...

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Yorkshire Winter League 2018/19' so the adjustment for Daniel Hockborn is +4.5% and for Stuart Macgregor is -3.6%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Daniel Hockborn: 83%, Stuart Macgregor: 87%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Daniel Hockborn: 60%, Stuart Macgregor: 62%.

A final adjustment of +0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Daniel Hockborn: 14,682, level confidence: 60%.
Final level for Stuart Macgregor: 17,719, level confidence: 62%.