Ben Smith v Patrick Rooney (Wed 16 Jan 2019)
Match won by Patrick Rooney. Result: 7-11,13-11,6-11,5-11.
Starting level for
Ben Smith:
12,332, level confidence: 76%. Set manually.
Starting level for
Patrick Rooney:
28,611, level confidence: 56%.
Patrick Rooney to win as he is currently playing
132% better than Ben Smith.
Patrick Rooney won 75% of the games and 59% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 42% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Patrick Rooney played
31% better than Ben Smith in this match.
Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Patrick Rooney was taking it easy by anything up to 16%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 19,094 and 28,611 without affecting his level.
As Patrick Rooney has played below his allowed range at 17,535, his level reduction is 8.9% before damping. On the assumption that Patrick Rooney would normally have been playing at level 23,904 (based on typical behaviour), Ben Smith played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 22%.
Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 5.7% and 14% respectively.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Patrick Rooney changes to -5.7% and Ben Smith changes to +10.2%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Patrick Rooney becomes -1.8% and for Ben Smith becomes +3.1%.
Given Patrick Rooney's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 53% has been applied to his level change. Looks like he wasn't taking the match too seriously...
Given Ben Smith's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 23% has been applied to his level change.
Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Yorkshire Winter League 2018/19' so the adjustment for Patrick Rooney is -0.9% and for Ben Smith is +1.9%.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Patrick Rooney: 75%, Ben Smith: 87%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Patrick Rooney: 56%, Ben Smith: 66%.
A final adjustment of +0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Ben Smith:
12,593, level confidence: 66%.
Final level for Patrick Rooney:
28,438, level confidence: 56%.