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Doug Chandler v Dan Binns (Thu 17 Jan 2019)

Match won by Dan Binns. Result: 5-11,7-11,1-11.

Starting level for Doug Chandler: 2,040, level confidence: 74%. Set manually.
Starting level for Dan Binns: 3,406, level confidence: 64%.
Dan Binns to win as he is currently playing 67% better than Doug Chandler.

Dan Binns won all of the games and 72% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 154% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Dan Binns played 154% better than Doug Chandler in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Dan Binns actually played at a level of 4,200 and Doug Chandler at a level of 1,654. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 23% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 18% and 18% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Dan Binns changes to +18% and Doug Chandler changes to -15%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Dan Binns becomes +6.5% and for Doug Chandler becomes -6.7%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Hampshire Mens League 2018/2019' so the adjustment for Dan Binns is +4.8% and for Doug Chandler is -4.9%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Dan Binns: 80%, Doug Chandler: 86%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Dan Binns: 65%, Doug Chandler: 70%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Doug Chandler: 1,941, level confidence: 70%.
Final level for Dan Binns: 3,566, level confidence: 65%.