SquashLevels
Find
Menu
Rankings
 
Help
 
 
 
cookies_acceptance
important
To give you the best experience, we use cookies to remember your settings and personalise your pages and social media. Please click Accept if you are happy for us to do this. To find out more about our use of cookies please see our cookie policy.
 

Patrick Rooney v Fergus Richards (Sat 19 Jan 2019)

Match won by Patrick Rooney. Result: 11-6,11-7,11-6.

Starting level for Patrick Rooney: 28,452, level confidence: 55%.
Starting level for Fergus Richards: 11,757, level confidence: 81%. Set manually.
Patrick Rooney to win as he is currently playing 142% better than Fergus Richards.

Patrick Rooney won all of the games and 63% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 74% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Patrick Rooney played 74% better than Fergus Richards in this match.

Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Patrick Rooney was taking it easy by anything up to 18%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 19,282 and 28,452 without affecting his level.

In this case, Patrick Rooney played at level 21,870 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Patrick Rooney would normally have been playing at level 23,422 (based on typical behaviour), Fergus Richards played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 7.1%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 4.5% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Patrick Rooney changes to 0% and Fergus Richards changes to +3.1%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Patrick Rooney becomes 0% and for Fergus Richards becomes +1.5%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Senior Intercounty 2018/19' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Patrick Rooney: 74%, Fergus Richards: 90%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Patrick Rooney: 63%, Fergus Richards: 76%.

Final level for Patrick Rooney: 28,452, level confidence: 63%.
Final level for Fergus Richards: 11,928, level confidence: 76%.