SquashLevels
Find
Menu
Rankings
 
Help
 
 
 
cookies_acceptance
important
To give you the best experience, we use cookies to remember your settings and personalise your pages and social media. Please click Accept if you are happy for us to do this. To find out more about our use of cookies please see our cookie policy.
 

Adam Turner v Patrick Rooney (Sun 20 Jan 2019)

Match won by Patrick Rooney. Result: 10-12,9-11,12-14.

Starting level for Adam Turner: 11,291, level confidence: 74%. Set manually.
Starting level for Patrick Rooney: 28,275, level confidence: 67%.
Patrick Rooney to win as he is currently playing 150% better than Adam Turner.

Patrick Rooney won all of the games and 54% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 19% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Patrick Rooney played 31% better than Adam Turner in this match.

Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Patrick Rooney was taking it easy by anything up to 19%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 18,690 and 28,275 without affecting his level.

As Patrick Rooney has played below his allowed range at 16,634, his level reduction is 12% before damping. On the assumption that Patrick Rooney would normally have been playing at level 22,988 (based on typical behaviour), Adam Turner played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 25%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 7.6% and 15% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Patrick Rooney changes to -7.6% and Adam Turner changes to +13%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Patrick Rooney becomes -2.1% and for Adam Turner becomes +3.9%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Senior Intercounty 2018/19' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Patrick Rooney: 82%, Adam Turner: 86%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Patrick Rooney: 59%, Adam Turner: 62%.

A final adjustment of +0.5% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Adam Turner: 11,728, level confidence: 62%.
Final level for Patrick Rooney: 27,976, level confidence: 59%.