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Chris Hall v Stuart Macgregor (Mon 21 Jan 2019)

Retired pro result: Chris Hall[364798]. Match type: Warwickshire Winter League 2018/19. Last pro match: 2016-06-06 19:30:00. Now: 2019-01-21 19:30:00. Days since: 959
Match won by Stuart Macgregor. Result: 13-11,3-11,8-11,8-11.

Starting level for Chris Hall: 20,891, level confidence: 72%. Set manually.
Starting level for Stuart Macgregor: 17,710, level confidence: 61%.
Chris Hall to win as he is currently playing 18% better than Stuart Macgregor.

Stuart Macgregor won 75% of the games and 58% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 38% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Stuart Macgregor played 29% better than Chris Hall in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Stuart Macgregor actually played at a level of 21,857 and Chris Hall at a level of 16,927. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 23% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Stuart Macgregor changes to +21% and Chris Hall changes to -18%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Stuart Macgregor becomes +5.1% and for Chris Hall becomes -6.5%.

Given Stuart Macgregor's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 35% has been applied to his level change.

Given Chris Hall's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 41% has been applied to his level change.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Warwickshire Winter League 2018/19' so the adjustment for Stuart Macgregor is +2.8% and for Chris Hall is -3.4%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Stuart Macgregor: 78%, Chris Hall: 85%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Stuart Macgregor: 63%, Chris Hall: 69%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Chris Hall: 20,179, level confidence: 69%.
Final level for Stuart Macgregor: 18,184, level confidence: 63%.