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Richie Fallows v Declan James (Tue 22 Jan 2019)

Match won by Declan James. Result: 5-11,8-11,11-7,9-11.

Starting level for Richie Fallows: 26,216, level confidence: 53%.
Starting level for Declan James: 38,950, level confidence: 75%. Set manually.
Declan James to win as he is currently playing 49% better than Richie Fallows.

Declan James won 75% of the games and 55% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 21% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Declan James played 24% better than Richie Fallows in this match.

As Declan James has played below his allowed range at 33,700, his level reduction is 3.9% before damping. On the assumption that Declan James would normally have been playing at level 37,146 (based on typical behaviour), Richie Fallows played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 7%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 3.2% and 5.7% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Declan James changes to -2.2% and Richie Fallows changes to +5.7%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Declan James becomes -0.8% and for Richie Fallows becomes +1.8%.

Given Declan James's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 67% has been applied to his level change.

Given Richie Fallows's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 50% has been applied to his level change.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'NW Counties Winter League 2018/19' so the adjustment for Declan James is -0.4% and for Richie Fallows is +0.9%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Declan James: 86%, Richie Fallows: 73%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Declan James: 79%, Richie Fallows: 66%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Richie Fallows: 26,410, level confidence: 66%.
Final level for Declan James: 38,744, level confidence: 79%.