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Simon Herbert v Harry Falconer (Sat 19 Jan 2019)

Match won by Harry Falconer. Result: 7-11,5-11,11-9,8-11.

Starting level for Simon Herbert: 14,272, level confidence: 71%. Set manually.
Starting level for Harry Falconer: 18,577, level confidence: 71%. Set manually.
Harry Falconer to win as he is currently playing 30% better than Simon Herbert.

Harry Falconer won 75% of the games and 58% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 35% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Harry Falconer played 28% better than Simon Herbert in this match.

In this case, Harry Falconer played at level 18,334 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. Consequently, Simon Herbert is considered to have not played better than expected and his level will also not be adjusted.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Harry Falconer: 84%, Simon Herbert: 84%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Harry Falconer: 84%, Simon Herbert: 83%.

Final level for Simon Herbert: 14,272, level confidence: 83%.
Final level for Harry Falconer: 18,577, level confidence: 84%.