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Harry Falconer v Julian Tomlinson (Wed 23 Jan 2019)

Match won by Harry Falconer. Result: 11-5,6-11,11-7,11-9.

Starting level for Harry Falconer: 19,428, level confidence: 58%.
Starting level for Julian Tomlinson: 16,127, level confidence: 77%. Set manually.
Harry Falconer to win as he is currently playing 20% better than Julian Tomlinson.

Harry Falconer won 75% of the games and 55% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 22% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Harry Falconer played 24% better than Julian Tomlinson in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Harry Falconer actually played at a level of 19,708 and Julian Tomlinson at a level of 15,898. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 1.4% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Harry Falconer changes to +1.3% and Julian Tomlinson changes to -1%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Harry Falconer becomes +0.6% and for Julian Tomlinson becomes -0.4%.

Given Harry Falconer's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 38% has been applied to his level change.

Given Julian Tomlinson's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 32% has been applied to his level change.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Yorkshire Winter League 2018/19' so the adjustment for Harry Falconer is +0.3% and for Julian Tomlinson is 0%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Harry Falconer: 76%, Julian Tomlinson: 88%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Harry Falconer: 75%, Julian Tomlinson: 86%.

A final adjustment of +0.3% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Harry Falconer: 19,537, level confidence: 75%.
Final level for Julian Tomlinson: 16,127, level confidence: 86%.