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Stuart Macgregor v Adam Turner (Wed 23 Jan 2019)

Match won by Stuart Macgregor. Result: 11-6,5-11,11-4,12-10.

Starting level for Stuart Macgregor: 17,914, level confidence: 71%. Set manually.
Starting level for Adam Turner: 11,727, level confidence: 61%.
Stuart Macgregor to win as he is currently playing 53% better than Adam Turner.

Stuart Macgregor won 75% of the games and 56% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 26% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Stuart Macgregor played 25% better than Adam Turner in this match.

As Stuart Macgregor has played below his allowed range at 15,276, his level reduction is 4% before damping. On the assumption that Stuart Macgregor would normally have been playing at level 16,982 (based on typical behaviour), Adam Turner played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 7.5%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 3.2% and 6% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Stuart Macgregor changes to -2.8% and Adam Turner changes to +6%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Stuart Macgregor becomes -1.2% and for Adam Turner becomes +2.2%.

Given Stuart Macgregor's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 35% has been applied to his level change.

Given Adam Turner's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 22% has been applied to his level change.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Yorkshire Winter League 2018/19' so the adjustment for Stuart Macgregor is -0.7% and for Adam Turner is +1.3%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Stuart Macgregor: 84%, Adam Turner: 78%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Stuart Macgregor: 76%, Adam Turner: 71%.

A final adjustment of +0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Stuart Macgregor: 17,839, level confidence: 76%.
Final level for Adam Turner: 11,912, level confidence: 71%.