Theis Houlberg v James Peach (Thu 24 Jan 2019)
Match won by James Peach. Result: 7-11,6-11,12-10,6-11.
Starting level for
Theis Houlberg:
11,028, level confidence: 61%.
Starting level for
James Peach:
15,317, level confidence: 79%. Set manually.
James Peach to win as he is currently playing
39% better than Theis Houlberg.
James Peach won 75% of the games and 58% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 39% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that James Peach played
30% better than Theis Houlberg in this match.
In this case, James Peach played at level 14,541 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that James Peach would normally have been playing at level 14,803 (based on typical behaviour), Theis Houlberg played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 1.8%.
Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 1.5% respectively.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for James Peach changes to 0% and Theis Houlberg changes to +1.5%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for James Peach becomes 0% and for Theis Houlberg becomes +0.7%.
Given Theis Houlberg's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 20% has been applied to his level change.
Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'South Wales Spring 2019' so the adjustment for James Peach is 0% and for Theis Houlberg is +0.5%.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. James Peach: 89%, Theis Houlberg: 78%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. James Peach: 86%, Theis Houlberg: 75%.
A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Theis Houlberg:
11,063, level confidence: 75%.
Final level for James Peach:
15,294, level confidence: 86%.