Aditya Jagtap v Reuben Phillips (Fri 25 Jan 2019)
Match won by Aditya Jagtap. Result: 11-5,8-11,11-5,11-4.
Starting level for
Aditya Jagtap:
21,966, level confidence: 70%.
Starting level for
Reuben Phillips:
17,394, level confidence: 58%.
Aditya Jagtap to win as he is currently playing
26% better than Reuben Phillips.
Aditya Jagtap won 75% of the games and 62% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 64% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Aditya Jagtap played
38% better than Reuben Phillips in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Aditya Jagtap actually played at a level of
22,951 and Reuben Phillips at a level of
16,647. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 4.5% to match this result.
Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 4% and 4% respectively.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Aditya Jagtap changes to +3.3% and Reuben Phillips changes to -4%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Aditya Jagtap becomes +1.3% and for Reuben Phillips becomes -1.6%.
Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Bourbon Trail Senior' so the adjustment is unchanged.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Aditya Jagtap: 83%, Reuben Phillips: 76%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Aditya Jagtap: 80%, Reuben Phillips: 73%.
Final level for Aditya Jagtap:
22,258, level confidence: 80%.
Final level for Reuben Phillips:
17,126, level confidence: 73%.