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Ben Sockett v Harry Falconer (Tue 22 Jan 2019)

Match won by Harry Falconer. Result: 2-11,4-11,3-11.

Starting level for Ben Sockett: 11,470, level confidence: 64%.
Starting level for Harry Falconer: 18,549, level confidence: 76%. Set manually.
Harry Falconer to win as he is currently playing 62% better than Ben Sockett.

Harry Falconer won all of the games and 79% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 267% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Harry Falconer played 267% better than Ben Sockett in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Harry Falconer actually played at a level of 27,930 and Ben Sockett at a level of 7,617. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 51% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 38% and 38% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Harry Falconer changes to +32% and Ben Sockett changes to -38%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Harry Falconer becomes +7% and for Ben Sockett becomes -8.9%.

Given Harry Falconer's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 37% has been applied to his level change.

Given Ben Sockett's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 21% has been applied to his level change. Looks like he wasn't taking the match too seriously...

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'NW Counties Winter League 2018/19' so the adjustment for Harry Falconer is +3.8% and for Ben Sockett is -5.3%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Harry Falconer: 87%, Ben Sockett: 80%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Harry Falconer: 58%, Ben Sockett: 53%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Ben Sockett: 10,907, level confidence: 53%.
Final level for Harry Falconer: 19,233, level confidence: 58%.