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Lewis Anderson v Chris Hall (Mon 28 Jan 2019)

Match won by Chris Hall. Result: 3-11,3-11,4-11.

Starting level for Lewis Anderson: 12,637, level confidence: 87%. Set manually.
Starting level for Chris Hall: 20,013, level confidence: 67%.
Chris Hall to win as he is currently playing 58% better than Lewis Anderson.

Chris Hall won all of the games and 77% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 230% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Chris Hall played 230% better than Lewis Anderson in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Chris Hall actually played at a level of 28,889 and Lewis Anderson at a level of 8,754. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 44% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 34% and 34% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Chris Hall changes to +34% and Lewis Anderson changes to -24%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Chris Hall becomes +7.2% and for Lewis Anderson becomes -6%.

Given Chris Hall's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 39% has been applied to his level change.

Given Lewis Anderson's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 24% has been applied to his level change. Looks like he wasn't taking the match too seriously...

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Warwickshire Winter League 2018/19' so the adjustment for Chris Hall is +3.9% and for Lewis Anderson is -3.6%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Chris Hall: 82%, Lewis Anderson: 93%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Chris Hall: 57%, Lewis Anderson: 65%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Lewis Anderson: 12,184, level confidence: 65%.
Final level for Chris Hall: 20,762, level confidence: 57%.