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Seigo Masuda v Robbie Temple (Wed 30 Jan 2019)

Match won by Robbie Temple. Result: 9-11,8-11,9-11.

Starting level for Seigo Masuda: 9,091, level confidence: 70%.
Starting level for Robbie Temple: 17,696, level confidence: 49%.
Robbie Temple to win as he is currently playing 95% better than Seigo Masuda.

Robbie Temple won all of the games and 56% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 27% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Robbie Temple played 36% better than Seigo Masuda in this match.

Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Robbie Temple was taking it easy by anything up to 11%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 13,456 and 17,696 without affecting his level.

As Robbie Temple has played below his allowed range at 12,907, his level reduction is 4.2% before damping. On the assumption that Robbie Temple would normally have been playing at level 15,667 (based on typical behaviour), Seigo Masuda played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 12%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 3% and 8.8% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Robbie Temple changes to -3% and Seigo Masuda changes to +6.1%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Robbie Temple becomes -1.3% and for Seigo Masuda becomes +2.3%.

Given Robbie Temple's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 35% has been applied to his level change.

Given Seigo Masuda's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 15% has been applied to his level change.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Surrey Winter League 2018/19' so the adjustment for Robbie Temple is -0.7% and for Seigo Masuda is +1.5%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Robbie Temple: 70%, Seigo Masuda: 84%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Robbie Temple: 58%, Seigo Masuda: 70%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Seigo Masuda: 9,214, level confidence: 70%.
Final level for Robbie Temple: 17,540, level confidence: 58%.