Stuart Macgregor v Owain Taylor (Mon 28 Jan 2019)
Match won by Owain Taylor. Result: 4-11,12-10,7-11,8-11.
Starting level for
Stuart Macgregor:
17,823, level confidence: 75%. Set manually.
Starting level for
Owain Taylor:
18,880, level confidence: 71%. Set manually.
Owain Taylor to win as he is currently playing
6% better than Stuart Macgregor.
Owain Taylor won 75% of the games and 58% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 39% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Owain Taylor played
30% better than Stuart Macgregor in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Owain Taylor actually played at a level of
20,877 and Stuart Macgregor at a level of
16,118. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 10.6% to match this result.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Owain Taylor changes to +10.3% and Stuart Macgregor changes to -9.6%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Owain Taylor becomes +2.8% and for Stuart Macgregor becomes -2.8%.
Given Owain Taylor's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 37% has been applied to his level change.
Given Stuart Macgregor's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 35% has been applied to his level change.
Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Warwickshire Winter League 2018/19' so the adjustment for Owain Taylor is +1.6% and for Stuart Macgregor is -1.5%.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Owain Taylor: 84%, Stuart Macgregor: 86%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Owain Taylor: 76%, Stuart Macgregor: 78%.
A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Stuart Macgregor:
17,531, level confidence: 78%.
Final level for Owain Taylor:
19,144, level confidence: 76%.