James Peach v Abdelrahman Abdelkhalek (Tue 29 Jan 2019)
Match won by James Peach. Result: 11-9,11-2,11-4.
Starting level for
James Peach:
15,180, level confidence: 85%. Set manually.
Starting level for
Abdelrahman Abdelkhalek:
8,190, level confidence: 69%.
James Peach to win as he is currently playing
85% better than Abdelrahman Abdelkhalek.
James Peach won all of the games and 69% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 120% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that James Peach played
120% better than Abdelrahman Abdelkhalek in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like James Peach actually played at a level of
16,538 and Abdelrahman Abdelkhalek at a level of
7,517. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 8.9% to match this result.
Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 6.5% and 6.5% respectively.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for James Peach changes to +5.3% and Abdelrahman Abdelkhalek changes to -6.5%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for James Peach becomes +1.9% and for Abdelrahman Abdelkhalek becomes -2.5%.
Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Odense Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. James Peach: 92%, Abdelrahman Abdelkhalek: 83%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. James Peach: 84%, Abdelrahman Abdelkhalek: 76%.
Final level for James Peach:
15,466, level confidence: 84%.
Final level for Abdelrahman Abdelkhalek:
7,993, level confidence: 76%.