Harry Falconer v Theis Houlberg (Tue 29 Jan 2019)
Match won by Harry Falconer. Result: 11-7,9-11,11-7,11-3.
Starting level for
Harry Falconer:
19,348, level confidence: 73%. Set manually.
Starting level for
Theis Houlberg:
10,988, level confidence: 74%. Set manually.
Harry Falconer to win as he is currently playing
76% better than Theis Houlberg.
Harry Falconer won 75% of the games and 60% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 50% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Harry Falconer played
33% better than Theis Houlberg in this match.
As Harry Falconer has played below his allowed range at 15,391, his level reduction is 5.1% before damping. On the assumption that Harry Falconer would normally have been playing at level 17,692 (based on typical behaviour), Theis Houlberg played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 9.9%.
Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 3.8% and 7.4% respectively.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Harry Falconer changes to -3.8% and Theis Houlberg changes to +7.3%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Harry Falconer becomes -1.5% and for Theis Houlberg becomes +2.5%.
Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Odense Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Harry Falconer: 85%, Theis Houlberg: 86%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Harry Falconer: 74%, Theis Houlberg: 75%.
Final level for Harry Falconer:
19,062, level confidence: 74%.
Final level for Theis Houlberg:
11,261, level confidence: 75%.