Benjamin Aubert v Harry Falconer (Wed 30 Jan 2019)
Match won by Benjamin Aubert. Result: 3-11,11-9,11-2,13-15,11-9.
Starting level for
Benjamin Aubert:
25,669, level confidence: 75%. Set manually.
Starting level for
Harry Falconer:
19,092, level confidence: 74%. Set manually.
Benjamin Aubert to win as he is currently playing
34% better than Harry Falconer.
Benjamin Aubert won 60% of the games and 52% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 7% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Benjamin Aubert played
9% better than Harry Falconer in this match.
As Benjamin Aubert has played below his allowed range at 22,481, his level reduction is 7.9% before damping. On the assumption that Benjamin Aubert would normally have been playing at level 24,953 (based on typical behaviour), Harry Falconer played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 9.4%.
Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 6.8% and 8.1% respectively.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Benjamin Aubert changes to -6.6% and Harry Falconer changes to +8.1%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Benjamin Aubert becomes -2% and for Harry Falconer becomes +2.4%.
Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Odense Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Benjamin Aubert: 87%, Harry Falconer: 86%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Benjamin Aubert: 78%, Harry Falconer: 77%.
Final level for Benjamin Aubert:
25,169, level confidence: 78%.
Final level for Harry Falconer:
19,546, level confidence: 77%.