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Lyell Fuller v Armando Olguin (Wed 30 Jan 2019)

Match won by Lyell Fuller. Result: 11-2,11-2,11-6.

Starting level for Lyell Fuller: 23,771, level confidence: 52%.
Starting level for Armando Olguin: 4,123, level confidence: 21%.
Lyell Fuller to win as he is currently playing 477% better than Armando Olguin.

Lyell Fuller won all of the games and 77% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 230% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Lyell Fuller played 230% better than Armando Olguin in this match.

Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Lyell Fuller was taking it easy by anything up to 46%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 6,872 and 23,771 without affecting his level.

In this case, Lyell Fuller played at level 13,606 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. Consequently, Armando Olguin is considered to have not played better than expected and his level will also not be adjusted.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Lyell Fuller: 72%, Armando Olguin: 46%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Lyell Fuller: 55%, Armando Olguin: 35%.

Final level for Lyell Fuller: 23,771, level confidence: 55%.
Final level for Armando Olguin: 4,123, level confidence: 35%.