Rasmus M?Ller Nielsen v James Peach (Thu 31 Jan 2019)
Match won by Rasmus M?Ller Nielsen. Result: 11-5,11-7,11-7.
Starting level for
Rasmus M?Ller Nielsen:
19,219, level confidence: 62%.
Starting level for
James Peach:
15,447, level confidence: 84%. Set manually.
Rasmus M?Ller Nielsen to win as he is currently playing
24% better than James Peach.
Rasmus M?Ller Nielsen won all of the games and 63% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 74% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Rasmus M?Ller Nielsen played
74% better than James Peach in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Rasmus M?Ller Nielsen actually played at a level of
22,707 and James Peach at a level of
13,074. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 18% to match this result.
Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 16% and 16% respectively.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Rasmus M?Ller Nielsen changes to +16% and James Peach changes to -12%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Rasmus M?Ller Nielsen becomes +4% and for James Peach becomes -3.2%.
Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Odense Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Rasmus M?Ller Nielsen: 79%, James Peach: 91%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Rasmus M?Ller Nielsen: 67%, James Peach: 77%.
Final level for Rasmus M?Ller Nielsen:
19,988, level confidence: 67%.
Final level for James Peach:
14,961, level confidence: 77%.