SquashLevels
Find
Menu
Rankings
 
Help
 
 
 
cookies_acceptance
important
To give you the best experience, we use cookies to remember your settings and personalise your pages and social media. Please click Accept if you are happy for us to do this. To find out more about our use of cookies please see our cookie policy.
 

Rasmus M?Ller Nielsen v James Peach (Thu 31 Jan 2019)

Match won by Rasmus M?Ller Nielsen. Result: 11-5,11-7,11-7.

Starting level for Rasmus M?Ller Nielsen: 19,219, level confidence: 62%.
Starting level for James Peach: 15,447, level confidence: 84%. Set manually.
Rasmus M?Ller Nielsen to win as he is currently playing 24% better than James Peach.

Rasmus M?Ller Nielsen won all of the games and 63% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 74% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Rasmus M?Ller Nielsen played 74% better than James Peach in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Rasmus M?Ller Nielsen actually played at a level of 22,707 and James Peach at a level of 13,074. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 18% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 16% and 16% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Rasmus M?Ller Nielsen changes to +16% and James Peach changes to -12%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Rasmus M?Ller Nielsen becomes +4% and for James Peach becomes -3.2%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Odense Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Rasmus M?Ller Nielsen: 79%, James Peach: 91%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Rasmus M?Ller Nielsen: 67%, James Peach: 77%.

Final level for Rasmus M?Ller Nielsen: 19,988, level confidence: 67%.
Final level for James Peach: 14,961, level confidence: 77%.