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Lyell Fuller v Matias Tuomi (Thu 31 Jan 2019)

Match won by Lyell Fuller. Result: 11-5,11-2,9-11,11-6.

Starting level for Lyell Fuller: 23,828, level confidence: 55%.
Starting level for Matias Tuomi: 15,983, level confidence: 55%.
Lyell Fuller to win as he is currently playing 49% better than Matias Tuomi.

Lyell Fuller won 75% of the games and 64% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 75% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Lyell Fuller played 42% better than Matias Tuomi in this match.

In this case, Lyell Fuller played at level 22,662 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. Consequently, Matias Tuomi is considered to have not played better than expected and his level will also not be adjusted.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0%.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Lyell Fuller changes to 0% and Matias Tuomi changes to 0%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Lyell Fuller becomes 0% and for Matias Tuomi becomes 0%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Seattle Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Lyell Fuller: 74%, Matias Tuomi: 74%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Lyell Fuller: 72%, Matias Tuomi: 72%.

Final level for Lyell Fuller: 23,828, level confidence: 72%.
Final level for Matias Tuomi: 15,995, level confidence: 72%.