Owain Taylor v Chris Hall (Mon 04 Feb 2019)
Match won by Chris Hall. Result: 11-6,5-11,8-11,6-11.
Starting level for
Owain Taylor:
18,892, level confidence: 78%. Set manually.
Starting level for
Chris Hall:
20,763, level confidence: 55%.
Chris Hall to win as he is currently playing
10% better than Owain Taylor.
Chris Hall won 75% of the games and 57% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 30% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Chris Hall played
27% better than Owain Taylor in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Chris Hall actually played at a level of
22,289 and Owain Taylor at a level of
17,599. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 7.3% to match this result.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Chris Hall changes to +7% and Owain Taylor changes to -4.8%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Chris Hall becomes +2.1% and for Owain Taylor becomes -1.7%.
Given Chris Hall's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 41% has been applied to his level change.
Given Owain Taylor's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 37% has been applied to his level change.
Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Warwickshire Winter League 2018/19' so the adjustment for Chris Hall is +1.1% and for Owain Taylor is -0.9%.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Chris Hall: 74%, Owain Taylor: 88%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Chris Hall: 69%, Owain Taylor: 82%.
A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Owain Taylor:
18,689, level confidence: 82%.
Final level for Chris Hall:
20,966, level confidence: 69%.