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James Earles v Adam Turner (Wed 06 Feb 2019)

Match won by James Earles. Result: 11-2,11-4,11-4.

Starting level for James Earles: 16,084, level confidence: 79%. Set manually.
Starting level for Adam Turner: 12,781, level confidence: 62%.
James Earles to win as he is currently playing 26% better than Adam Turner.

James Earles won all of the games and 77% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 230% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that James Earles played 230% better than Adam Turner in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like James Earles actually played at a level of 26,046 and Adam Turner at a level of 7,893. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 62% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 54% and 54% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for James Earles changes to +43% and Adam Turner changes to -54%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for James Earles becomes +9.1% and for Adam Turner becomes -12%.

Given James Earles's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 32% has been applied to his level change.

Given Adam Turner's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 24% has been applied to his level change. Looks like he wasn't taking the match too seriously...

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Yorkshire Winter League 2018/19' so the adjustment for James Earles is +5.2% and for Adam Turner is -6.7%.

Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Adam Turner is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. James Earles: 89%, Adam Turner: 79%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. James Earles: 55%, Adam Turner: 49%.

A final adjustment of +0.3% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for James Earles: 16,959, level confidence: 55%.
Final level for Adam Turner: 12,203, level confidence: 49%.