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Harry Falconer v Taminder Gata-Aura (Wed 06 Feb 2019)

Match won by Harry Falconer. Result: 11-6,9-11,11-3,4-11,11-5.

Starting level for Harry Falconer: 19,806, level confidence: 84%. Set manually.
Starting level for Taminder Gata-Aura: 11,946, level confidence: 69%.
Harry Falconer to win as he is currently playing 66% better than Taminder Gata-Aura.

Harry Falconer won 60% of the games and 56% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 28% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Harry Falconer played 14% better than Taminder Gata-Aura in this match.

As Harry Falconer has played below his allowed range at 15,158, his level reduction is 10.9% before damping. On the assumption that Harry Falconer would normally have been playing at level 18,412 (based on typical behaviour), Taminder Gata-Aura played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 16%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 8.3% and 12% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Harry Falconer changes to -6.8% and Taminder Gata-Aura changes to +12%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Harry Falconer becomes -2.1% and for Taminder Gata-Aura becomes +3.6%.

Given Harry Falconer's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 39% has been applied to his level change.

Given Taminder Gata-Aura's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 22% has been applied to his level change.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Yorkshire Winter League 2018/19' so the adjustment for Harry Falconer is -1.1% and for Taminder Gata-Aura is +2.2%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Harry Falconer: 92%, Taminder Gata-Aura: 83%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Harry Falconer: 76%, Taminder Gata-Aura: 69%.

A final adjustment of +0.3% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Harry Falconer: 19,635, level confidence: 76%.
Final level for Taminder Gata-Aura: 12,237, level confidence: 69%.