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Mike Harris v Dave Palmer (Thu 07 Feb 2019)

Match won by Mike Harris. Result: 11-4,12-10,11-4.

Starting level for Mike Harris: 18,650, level confidence: 86%. Set manually.
Starting level for Dave Palmer: 8,482, level confidence: 76%. Set manually.
Mike Harris to win as he is currently playing 120% better than Dave Palmer.

Mike Harris won all of the games and 65% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 89% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Mike Harris played 89% better than Dave Palmer in this match.

Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Mike Harris was taking it easy by anything up to 15%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 12,959 and 18,650 without affecting his level.

In this case, Mike Harris played at level 16,022 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. Consequently, Dave Palmer is considered to have not played better than expected and his level will also not be adjusted.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Mike Harris: 93%, Dave Palmer: 87%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Mike Harris: 86%, Dave Palmer: 81%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Mike Harris: 18,622, level confidence: 86%.
Final level for Dave Palmer: 8,469, level confidence: 81%.