Patrick Rooney v Micah Franklin (Tue 05 Feb 2019)
Match won by Patrick Rooney. Result: 12-10,11-9,11-7.
Starting level for
Patrick Rooney:
27,898, level confidence: 89%. Set manually.
Starting level for
Micah Franklin:
15,634, level confidence: 72%. Set manually.
Patrick Rooney to win as he is currently playing
78% better than Micah Franklin.
Patrick Rooney won all of the games and 57% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 31% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Patrick Rooney played
39% better than Micah Franklin in this match.
As Patrick Rooney has played below his allowed range at 22,408, his level reduction is 3.3% before damping. On the assumption that Patrick Rooney would normally have been playing at level 25,410 (based on typical behaviour), Micah Franklin played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 8.2%.
Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 2.5% and 6.1% respectively.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Patrick Rooney changes to -2% and Micah Franklin changes to +6.1%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Patrick Rooney becomes -0.8% and for Micah Franklin becomes +2%.
Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Carter Classic' so the adjustment is unchanged.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Patrick Rooney: 94%, Micah Franklin: 85%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Patrick Rooney: 83%, Micah Franklin: 75%.
Final level for Patrick Rooney:
27,677, level confidence: 83%.
Final level for Micah Franklin:
15,953, level confidence: 75%.