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Jaymie Haycocks v Patrick Rooney (Wed 06 Feb 2019)

Match won by Jaymie Haycocks. Result: 11-9,11-5,11-8.

Starting level for Jaymie Haycocks: 26,623, level confidence: 61%.
Starting level for Patrick Rooney: 27,703, level confidence: 83%. Set manually.
Patrick Rooney to win as he is currently playing 4% better than Jaymie Haycocks.

Jaymie Haycocks won all of the games and 60% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 50% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Jaymie Haycocks played 52% better than Patrick Rooney in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Jaymie Haycocks actually played at a level of 33,444 and Patrick Rooney at a level of 22,053. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 26% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Jaymie Haycocks changes to +25% and Patrick Rooney changes to -17%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Jaymie Haycocks becomes +5.4% and for Patrick Rooney becomes -4%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Carter Classic' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Jaymie Haycocks: 78%, Patrick Rooney: 91%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Jaymie Haycocks: 62%, Patrick Rooney: 72%.

A final adjustment of +0.8% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Jaymie Haycocks: 27,937, level confidence: 62%.
Final level for Patrick Rooney: 27,189, level confidence: 72%.